Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Theory post

To cut federal deficit requires long-term effort. Besides improving domestic economic condition and carrying out all kinds of rescue plans, government will also work on cutting government expense. Expenditure on Iraq war can be reduced by retreating gradually and shifting responsibility back to local police force; spending on dealing Asian issues can be reduced by turning China a responsible stakeholder and enlisting Beijing's help; however, medicare and social security is pure consumption and cannot be cut. But there are ways to make relief the pressure on deficit.
1. Slightly raise the rate of social security and medicare taxes. Since we are going to face less working force supporting larger retirement population, each young people need to pay more in order to support more than one elder.
2. government should stop borrowing money from social security funds. This may sounds nonsense, but every year government does borrow money from itself. It should be that U.S. Treasury borrows the money from funds in short-term, and returns the money in several weeks, one month, etc. However, this is not always the case. As the first wave of baby boomers becomes eligible for social security early retirement benefits, government needs to accumulate funds to avoid future bankrupt, to take efforts to avoid a soar in following years' budget deficit.
3. Baby boomers are likely to delay their retirement ages. Though Obama's increase tax may not be a good reason for working longer, baby boomers' life expectation and the characteristic of being young mentally may drive them to work longer. According to GAO's research, the retirement security of boomers and others will likely depend more on individual savings and returns on such savings.
Also, if Obama's health care reform plan works well, the larger medicare program grows, the larger amount of money is to be saved. Hopefully, medicare and social security expense will have limit effect on the budget deficit.

2 comments:

Energy4tomorrow said...

I must admit, I haven't paid much attention to the deficit, and now that I've read your blog and understand more about the situation, it seems very overwhelming. As far as I can tell, we're a long way away from making any progress on cutting the deficit. Especially in light of the current financial meltdown, it seems highly unlikely that it's going to get better any time soon. I read an article about the candidates positions, and it sounds like McCain claims he can balance the budget by 2013, and Obama says he won't increase the deficit. The problem is, most financial analysts don't think it will work. I think the goal right now needs to be just to hold steady and not let it get any worse. I really don't see a way to make any significant dent in decreasing it in the near future.

The article I read can be found at:

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/campaign-2008/story/738126.html

GinY said...

thank you for the information! I've read the article you mentioned.
In order to win the election, neither of them would dare to reduce tax cut. McCain even said the federal budget deficit didn't have much to do with tax. I remember in 2004, both Bush and Kerry promised to reduce budget deficit, but we can see the result. Though I haven't read any really practical and convincing methods to reduce deficit, this time, I think Obama has no choice but to take some real steps to fix the problem. Because our budget deficit has already been ridiculously high.