Monday, October 13, 2008

Baby Boom of 1946-1964 vs. Deficit Pressure

"Young males returning to the United States, Canada, and Australia following tours of duty overseas during World War II began families, which brought about a significant number of new children into the world. This dramatic increase in the number of births from 1946 to 1964 (1947 to 1966 in Canada and 1946-1961 in Australia) is called the Baby Boom."

During baby boom, approximately 79 million baby were born and one can say that boomers represent the vast majority of work force in the United States. Correlated to the soar population, existing factories, stores, business, etc. were expanded; apartments, power system, water system and other government resources must be enlarged; urbanization and suburban development pace sped up. As stated in the article The Boomer Stats, "the huge growth in the economy since the 90s was due in no small part to 76 million of us working up to our peak earning and spending years." (This reminds me of the surplus during Clinton administration, maybe the deficit increments these years are not all due to the fail economy policy)

This year, however, the first wave of baby boomers are turning 62, which means they're eligible to Social Security retirement benefits. Though citizens are not eligible for Medicare until 65, new research from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners(NAIC) shows that many are confused about their post-retirement health insurance options assuming that Medicare coverage is available at age 62 too. Good news so far is that we don't need to deal with a huge growth in government expense on Medicare this year (hopefully this is the worst year and will not turn even worse). Bad news is that this will influence baby boomers retirement decision. Without noticing federal funds are not eligible for them, boomers choose to retire in their 62 and begin counting on the "kids" to pay for their social security. This will reduce the tax revenue and lead to a growth in budget deficit.

Since the financial crisis has shrunk their retirement funds, will the boomers be willing/forced to delay their retirement time? And will that help a little bit? What about reform?

The current situation is, quote Social Security, Medicare Panel Adjusts Forecast, "Social Security expenditures are expected to reach $594 billion this year. For Medicare, the figure is $438 billion. Over time, the programs are expected to consume a growing share of the federal budget. This year, about 7 percent of federal income tax revenue goes toward paying Social Security and Medicare benefits. The figure is projected to climb to more than 10 percent by 2012, and 26 percent by 2020, said economist Thomas R."

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